President Donald Trump is staring down two stark liabilities that threaten to damage his Republican Party in the midterms and to ruin his second term-legacy.<\/p>\n
Somehow he\u2019s maneuvered himself into a more vulnerable spot regarding Iran than any president since Jimmy Carter. As in the 1979-80\u00a0hostage crisis<\/a>, the Islamic Republic is exerting political pressure that it can dial up on the US leader ahead of a national election. A week ago, Trump\u2019s team predicted a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was\u00a0imminent<\/a>. But Tehran,\u00a0now dictating terms<\/a>\u00a0to the US global superpower, has imposed tough new conditions.<\/p>\n At the same time, Trump faces a separate but related problem at home. The war\u2019s impact on energy prices is further souring voter perceptions\u00a0of the economy<\/a>. He\u2019s entered the doom loop in which presidents and officials scan data for silver linings but voters see only indifference to their plights. Twists like Friday\u2019s\u00a0bad jobs report<\/a>\u00a0are untimely for the GOP with November fast approaching.<\/p>\n As the political environment darkens for Republicans, their leader seems oblivious. Many of Trump\u2019s weekend social media posts might have been scripted by his foes to portray an out-of-touch president. He posted a picture with South African golf legend Gary Player, and another of the sculpting of a new green at one of his courses. He posted about a futuristic drone port on the proposed\u00a0White House ballroom<\/a>, the\u00a0Reflecting Pool renovation<\/a>, and two statues in Washington newly coated with glistening golden paint. He also claimed to be a slayer of inflation, but he looked more like a president desperately trying to leave a physical legacy rather than one brimming with ideas for national renewal.<\/p>\n The weekend did deliver a victory for Trump: The Senate narrowly confirmed his former personal lawyer\u00a0Todd Blanche<\/a>\u00a0as US attorney general. But this is a win that will appeal more to the president than to voters. And Republicans left town after proving their own warnings that Trump\u2019s top-priority\u00a0voting restrictions bill<\/a>\u00a0can\u2019t pass. And the president\u2019s grim August took another rough turn abroad, when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected another supposed triumph \u2014 a plan to\u00a0disarm Hamas<\/a>\u00a0in Gaza.<\/p>\n Such political challenges would typically spell trouble for incumbent presidents in midterm elections. And\u00a0as CNN\u2019s Aaron Blake pointed out Sunday<\/a>, multiple polls now show that Trump has squandered the traditional GOP advantage in two areas: national security and the economy.<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s thwarting of convention has always been a political strength, and he\u2019s less than two years past the\u00a0greatest political comeback<\/a>\u00a0in US history. But the dynamics of November\u2019s election may not favor him. He\u2019s always been more effective politically as an outsider, as in 2016 and 2024. He is the political establishment now, and previously when he\u2019s been forced to defend his own record, as in the 2018 and 2020 elections, he has foundered.<\/p>\n The president is also in denial about how voters are feeling. \u201cThey are not angry at me, but they\u2019re angry at Republicans,\u201d Trump\u00a0told Punchbowl News<\/a>\u00a0last week.<\/p>\n But in recent weeks, Democrats may have given him an opening. Primary wins by progressive and democratic socialists are fueling Trump\u2019s claims that he is resisting a tide of left-wing extremism. In a parallel to the GOP\u2019s tea party insurgency earlier in the century, Democrats may risk winnable seats by nominating candidates who alienate more moderate, suburban voters who tend to decide elections.<\/p>\n Progressives, however, believe that the jumbled political circumstances\u00a0create the conditions<\/a> for a breakthrough among voters who aren\u2019t just down on Trump but who also disdain the moderate Democratic establishment \u2014 especially after the failed campaigns of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris allowed Trump to regain the White House.<\/p>\n Progressive Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed on Sunday homed in on Trump\u2019s vulnerability on the economy as he pivoted from a bitter primary in a state that could decide who runs the Senate. \u201cDifferences that we hashed out are so much smaller than the similarities that we share: a responsibility to stand up to Donald Trump and the ways that he\u2019s used his power for his own gain, for his family\u2019s finances, rather than to improve your family\u2019s finances,\u201d\u00a0El-Sayed told CNN\u2019s Jake Tapper<\/a>\u00a0on \u201cState of the Union.\u201d<\/p>\n In 1980, Iran exerted leverage over a US election after\u00a0holding 52 Americans in Tehran<\/a>\u00a0in a standoff that eventually lasted 444 days. Forty-six years later, it\u2019s not people being held hostage \u2014 but the Strait of Hormuz oil exporting route. This means the regime has another election-season pressure point as US voters \u2014 as they did with Carter \u2014 turn on a president over the economy.<\/p>\n Ironically, Trump has seemed very aware of the way that Iran was able to create political heat on Carter. Many historians believe the hostage crisis was instrumental in the Democratic president\u2019s loss to Republican Ronald Reagan in the 1980 election after one term.<\/p>\n \u201cI didn\u2019t want to be Jimmy Carter, you know, I didn\u2019t feel like being Jimmy Carter,\u201d Trump said on June 4, in explaining why he did not order a special forces operation to seize Iranian nuclear material from its underground sites.<\/p>\nAre Democrats handing Trump a lifeline?<\/h2>\n
Iran digs in to defy Trump<\/h2>\n