Last year India announced a massive discovery of lithium in the country’s northern Kashmir region and started laying the foundation for a mining boom of the in-demand mineral being referred to in some circles as “white gold.” However, it now seems that those boomtime dreams are disappearing into thin, Himalayan air.
In February 2023, the government of India broadcast the discovery of a reserve holding 5.9 million metric tons of lithium, making the South Asian nation home to the fifth-largest lithium reserve on the planet. The timing of the discovery was fortuitous, as lithium demand is expected to grow prodigiously in coming years due to its essential role in a litany of clean energy manufacturing components including the lithium-ion batteries used in renewable energy storage and electric vehicles.
Global lithium demand rose by 30% in 2023. What’s more, demand for the metal for the battery-making sector alone will increase ten-fold between 2020 and 2030, according to estimates from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). In addition, a 2023 report from Popular Mechanics calculated that “an electrified economy in 2030 will likely need anywhere from 250,000 to 450,000 tonnes of lithium.” To put this mind-blowing sum in perspective: “In 2021, the world produced only 105—not 105,000—tonnes.”
But now, nearly two years after the announcement of the Kashmiri lithium discovery, nothing has come of it. After widespread reports in Indian media that big-name firms including Mitsubishi, Tesla, and Ola Electric were showing interest in the reserve, such investments have not materialized. In fact, the Indian government attempted to auction off the Salal reserve twice in March, but failed two times over when no one bid on it. As a result, Rest of World is now reporting that plans for extraction are on indefinite hiatus.
Experts say that the Indian government only has itself to blame for the failure. It has become apparent that the significance of the discovery was grossly overreported – in reality, the ore body holds only about 0.02 million tonnes of lithium carbonate, a much lower concentration than in other major reserves. What’s more, the clay-deposit form that the lithium is found in makes it a poor candidate for commercial extraction. What’s more, the geological report that accompanied the announcement of the Salal reserve was vague and insufficiently detailed to comply with international standards.
“It was irresponsible of the government to act that way. It is nothing but actually hiding the facts,” said P.V. Rao, a senior geologist representing India at the Committee for Mineral Reserves International Reporting Standards. “Are you trying to sell it and put the investors into doom?”As a result, would-be buyers are staying far away from what is likely a lemon.
These issues are not isolated to the Salal reserve. In fact, this summer the government announced the cancellation of auctions for 14 out of 18 blocks put on the auction block in February. “Out of the 14 blocks annulled, five were cancelled as no bids were received, and nine received less than the mandatory requirement of three bids,” Fastmarkets reports. The issues with these lots are likely closely related to those playing out at the Salal. According to Rao, geological reports commissioned by the Indian government frequently contain “misleading and quite inadequate” information.
This is a major issue for India, which desperately needs to ease its reliance on imports of critical minerals including lithium. “There is a need for India to invest in resource-rich, friendly nations and minimize its reliance on imports, especially from countries with a potential trade risk in the future,” read a recent report from the Ohio-based Institute for Energy Economics & Financial Analysis. For now, India’s import dependency for lithium remains at 100%.