Oliver Wiseman wrote this week that the Trump team sees much of the U.S. government as beyond repair. Instead of propping up failing institutions, they’re tearing off the facade and exposing the rot.
The result? A government that seems chaotic with no clear plan for what comes next.
“For those of us in the news business, every day feels like a week.”
America’s institutions are failing—religion, education, housing, farming, media, healthcare—says Alana Newhouse. But this isn’t just politics; the unraveling began in the 1970s. Jobs were offshored, wages stagnated, and unions were gutted. Secure careers turned into gig work—low pay, no benefits, no stability. Local newspapers, churches, and community ties eroded, leaving a hollowed-out society. The economy shifted to short-term profits over long-term stability, leaving most Americans worse off as the foundations that once held everything together crumbled.
What Newhouse and Wiseman never mention? Energy.
What’s missing from this story is that the unraveling began when U.S. oil production peaked. Costs went up, growth slowed. Instead of adjusting, policymakers leaned on debt, speculation, and offshoring. Cheap energy had masked inefficiencies, but once it declined, the economy shifted from production to financial tricks. Wealth was extracted, not created, leaving behind inequality and fragility.
Turchin’s Lens: A Revolution in Motion
Peter Turchin sees Trump’s election as a classical revolution—deep social forces breaking through the system.
“What happened on November 5 was a bloodless revolution in which a coalition of counter-elites came to power… The Democratic Party had become the home of the ruling class… So the goal is to overthrow the established elites and replace them with a new crop of counter-elites.”
That flips the perspective.
Turchin has tracked 200 societies through cycles of rise and collapse—from Rome and China to modern states. His Cliodynamics model maps the structural forces behind political and economic breakdowns.
History runs in cycles—societies rise, elites multiply, inequality deepens, and collapse follows. Too many elites chase too few positions, leading to infighting and instability. Meanwhile, the wealth pump drains the working class as wages stagnate and elites hoard resources. At some point, the system breaks—through revolution, civil war, or state collapse.
But revolutions aren’t led by workers and peasants. They’re driven by frustrated elites—often lawyers—who find themselves locked out of power. This isn’t about bad leaders; it’s about structural failure.
Turchin’s Blind Spot: Energy
Turchin gets a lot right, but his weakest link? Energy.
He understands its historical role—wind and peat fueled the Dutch, coal powered Britain, and oil made the U.S. king. But he’s wrong about where things are headed. His belief that clean energy is shifting global power misses the mark. Supply chains are realigning, sure, but energy density still rules.
China churns out 75% of the world’s solar panels, betting energy tech will buy influence. But swapping solar for oil won’t change the game.
Renewables sound great—until you consider what holds up civilization: steel, concrete, plastics, and fertilizer. Nothing but fossil fuels can produce these at scale. Industrial economies don’t run on promises. Mining, shipping, trucking, rail, and militaries run on oil, not sunshine and wind. That won’t change fast enough to matter—especially when voters care more about paying the bills than on cutting emissions.
The Collapse Is No Longer Just Internal
Turchin sees collapse as mostly an inside job—internal forces drive cycles of rise and fall. Geopolitics matters, but as an accelerant. Wars, trade shocks, and rivalries worsen elite competition and economic stress, but the system breaks from within.
That made sense when economies were more isolated. But in today’s world of financialized markets and globalized supply chains, the line between geopolitics and domestic policy is vanishing.
Matthew Continetti makes that case in Trump’s Foreign Policy Revolution. National interest, border security, and scaling back overseas commitments aren’t just foreign policy—they’re domestic survival strategies. Economic nationalism, tariffs, and alliance restructuring aren’t about diplomacy; they’re about shielding U.S. industry and limiting financial exposure. Supply chains dictate industrial policy, sanctions drive inflation, and military conflicts redraw economic maps overnight.
Central banks and politicians aren’t leading; they’re reacting.
“The postwar global order is not just obsolete. It is now a weapon being used against us.”
— U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio
Under Trump, America First means abandoning liberal hegemony and prioritizing national power. The U.S. is no longer a status quo power but a revisionist one—reshaping the global order alongside Russia and China. This shift rewrites every pillar of American power—military, economic, diplomatic, cultural.
The Great Game Reborn
The Great Game once defined the 19th-century struggle between the British and Russian Empires for control of Central Asia. Today, it’s a global contest for power, resources, and strategic influence—this time between the U.S., China, Russia, and other rising players. The game has returned, but the rules have changed.
Trump understands what many still ignore—energy is power. Unlike his predecessors, he sees energy dominance as the foundation of economic strength and global influence. His vision isn’t just about oil—it’s about securing all U.S. energy resources: oil, gas, coal, nuclear, pipelines, refineries, AI. His push for Greenland, Panama, Canada, and Gaza isn’t random; it’s about territory as energy leverage, a strategic play for control in a world where power will be dictated by resource access.
Tariffs and energy control mark a zero-sum shift—an unspoken acknowledgment that the age of perpetual growth is over, and the great powers are now fighting over what remains. If that’s reality, then those still operating under the liberal order playbook—like much of Europe—are playing a losing hand.
The U.S., China, and Russia already understand the new reality—because it’s not new at all. The world is reverting to the old game: mercantilism, spheres of influence, and economic warfare. This was how global powers operated before World War II reset the board, and now, the reset is reversing.
The modern Great Game is being fought through economic statecraft. The U.S. is weaponizing trade—blocking Chinese investments, imposing tariffs, and restructuring supply chains. Europe faces NATO uncertainty, rising defense costs, and the need for strategic autonomy. Globalization is fading, replaced by neo-imperialism and resource-driven power politics.
The stakes are high. The game is accelerating. And the future belongs to those who understand that the rules have changed.