The IEA has released its 2024 report on the global hydrogen sector, forecasting a jump in low-emissions hydrogen production by 2030 and noting a steady increase in demand.
Among the report’s key findings for 2023:
- Global hydrogen demand rose 2.5% over 2022 levels, reaching 97 million tonnes.
- Demand remains concentrated in the refining and chemicals sectors.
- Low-emissions hydrogen saw only 1 million tonnes of production but given the scope of announced projects, this figure could jump to 49 million tonnes by 2030 – a volume 30% higher that the IEA forecast last year.
- Projects that reached a final investment decision in 2023 will add 3.4 million tonnes per year, double the volume committed to in 2022.
- The 2023 FIDs are split between 1.9 million tonnes of electrolysis projects and 1.5 million tonnes of carbon capture projects.
In reviewing the announced projects, the agency cast doubt on the sector’s likelihood of bringing these volumes on line, saying this would require “an unprecedented compound annual growth rate of over 90% from 2024 until 2030” – a rate far higher than the solar sector saw in its highest growth period.