HSBC on Wednesday lowered its Brent crude oil price forecast for 2026 to $80 per barrel from $95/bbl, as it assumes a return to normal Gulf oil exports by the end of September.
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The bank also lowered its 2027 forecast to $65 per barrel, $10 per barrel below its previous estimate.
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Oil prices jumped more than 6% on Wednesday, hitting a two-week high after U.S. President Donald Trump said the memorandum of understanding to end the conflict with Iran was «over», renewing fears of disruptions to Middle East oil supplies.
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Brent crude futures were up 5.04% at $77.9 a barrel, as of 0917 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 4.9% to $73.87 a barrel.
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Analysts at HSBC said their base case assumes a return to normal Gulf exports by end of September, with Hormuz traffic recovering to about 80% of pre-conflict levels and bypass pipelines operating at full capacity.
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«Once flows normalise, our balances point to the market returning to surplus from fourth quarter 2026 onwards», HSBC said.
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UBS last week lowered its third- and fourth-quarter 2026 Brent forecasts to $80 per barrel.