Australia’s resource and energy exports are forecast to reach a new record of $450 billion in 2022 to 2023, boosted by global energy shortages and the lowered Australian dollar.
Following a record $422 billion in the 2021 to 2022 period, resource and energy export earnings are forecast to reach $450 billion over the 2022 to 2023 period before falling to $375 billion over the 2023 to 2024 period.
High energy prices and the strength of the US dollar against the Australian dollar have driven a surge in export earnings and are expected to continue to do so.
Energy prices are elevated largely due to the looming drop in exports of gas, coal and oil from Russia – one of the world’s largest exporters of energy products. Despite falling export volumes, earnings from LNG are forecast to reach around $90 billion in the 2022 to 2023 period and thermal and metallurgical coal are anticipated to earn around $120 billion in 2022 to 2023.
Oil prices rose to their highest level in a decade in recent months, as the market reacts to looming sanctions on exports of Russian oil and related products by the EU. The oil price is likely to fall back over the outlook period, as an improvement in global supply gradually outpaces demand, affected by sluggish economic activity.
LNG spot prices remain extremely volatile amidst heightened global uncertainty. Spot LNG is expected to be relatively high for some time, whereas oil price–linked contract LNG prices are forecast to ease from high levels as oil prices settle back. Export volumes are forecast to fall from 83 million tonnes in 2021 to 22 to 80 million tonnes in 2022 to 23.
In volume terms, Australian resource exports are expected to show further growth over the outlook period. GDP and industrial production will grow modestly, increasing the demand for ferrous and non-ferrous metals.
To read the full September 2022 edition of Resources and energy quarterly (REQ) released by the Department of Industry, Science and Resources, click here.