Russia-Ukraine war only part of the problem

APPEA has declared that natural gas will be essential in the global reduction of emissions, regardless of any potential change in demand by 2030.

The Australian Petroleum Production & Exploration Association (APPEA) responded to the International Energy Agency’s report, World Energy Outlook 2022, highlighting the importance that gas holds in the energy market in the wake of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

The IEA’s report outlines the importance of gas in three potential global scenarios on the shift to low emissions.

The three scenarios considered in the report are:

  • The Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) – global demand for natural gas is lower in 2030 than 2021 but, in that time, increases in developing Asian markets (by 67 per cent) and in India (by 20 per cent).
  • The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) – natural gas demand rises 0.4 per cent per year until 2030, reaching 4,400 bcm and then stabilising until 2050. The Asia-Pacific region increases demand by 13 per cent by 2030, and 28 per cent by 2050.
  • Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE) – demand is lower in 2030, and what demand there is met by non-combustion natural gas or natural gas producers utilising carbon capture and utilisation technology.

The war in Europe was only the most salient of a number of factors underlying this importance, however.

Chief Executive of APPEA Samantha McCulloch said that it is the versatility of natural gas that underlines its importance in the different scenarios laid out in the report.

“The World Energy Outlook highlights that, as the global energy market is being reshaped following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the ongoing recovery from the COVID-19 global pandemic and to meet emissions reduction commitments, natural gas remains an important part of a cleaner energy future,” McCulloch said.

“Demand for natural gas in the fast-growing developing Asian market continues to provide an economic opportunity for Australia. Ongoing investment, to maintain existing production and facilities, or to fund growth, is required under all scenarios,” she said.

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