Guyana’s offshore oil production continues to be a beacon of growth amid global oil supply challenges, according to Rystad Energy’s Vice President and Global Lead of Crude Trading Analysis, Patricio Valdivieso.
“Guyana’s offshore production is a bright spot,” Valdivieso stated.
ExxonMobil operates Guyana’s Stabroek block with a 45% stake, while Hess has 30% and CNOOC has 25%. The consortium has sanctioned six projects in total for the Stabroek Block. Three of these are set to begin production in 2025, 2026 and 2027. The collective expenditure to develop these six projects is estimated at US$54 billion. As global oil supply faces stagnation and potential decline, Guyana’s contributions remain reliable, according to Valdivieso.
“Oil prices have bounced back this week and are experiencing their best performance since early April,” he wrote on June 17. Brent crude futures have recovered after dropping to nearly US$82 per barrel. Rystad Energy’s latest market update, which includes insights from the recent OPEC+ guidance, signals a stagnation in oil supply growth for 2024 and a potential decline in production in 2025. “Under these conditions — and the disconnect between the OPEC+ demand outlook and all other agencies — it is hard to remain fully bearish when global oil supply growth appears decimated,” Valdivieso explained.
On June 2, OPEC+ announced the extension of its voluntary cuts until the end of the third quarter of this year, with gradual unwinding expected from October 2024 until September 2025. Rystad Energy had anticipated this move, projecting that the supply cuts would not unwind this summer and that the fundamentals for 2025 would not support a reversal. After the announcement, Brent front-month futures fell by roughly US$5 to US$77 per barrel, the lowest level since February.
Valdivieso emphasized the significance of these cuts: “Rystad Energy estimates that total expected oil (crude and condensate) supply growth for 2024 is now closer to 80,000 barrels per day (b/d), down from nearly 900,000 b/d before June 2.” This would mark 2024 as the first year since 2020 with no oil supply growth.
Despite these challenges, non-OPEC+ oil supply remains robust. Rystad Energy expects non-OPEC+ oil production to reach 37.1 million b/d in 2024, a slight upward revision from previous estimates. “U.S. shale remains a trustworthy source of growth, though less elastic to price changes and more consolidated after continued rounds of mergers and acquisitions,” said Valdivieso.
Canadian oil sands, Brazil’s pre-salt, and notably, Guyana’s offshore production continues to deliver strong results. Valdivieso highlighted, “Guyana’s offshore production is a key contributor to non-OPEC+ supply, maintaining healthy growth even as other regions face challenges.”
In contrast, the production profile for OPEC+ (with quota) countries has been significantly revised downward for 2024 and most of 2025. Total OPEC+ oil supply (excluding exempt countries) is expected to be around 37.2 million b/d for 2024, down from previous estimates of 38 million b/d.