The Azerbaijani hosts had hoped at the outset of COP29 that it would go down as one of the more successful meetings in the annals of the annual UN climate conference. Instead, the early view is that COP29 will go down as one of the more disappointing COPs to date.
Environmentalists are departing Baku feeling underwhelmed with the outcome, as COP29 negotiators backed away from an ambitious climate financing target and continued to bicker among themselves even over the significantly scaled back dollar goal.
On November 22, the last scheduled day of COP29, the latest iteration of a draft agreement set a target of $250 billion annually in contributions from developed nations to combat the consequences of global warming, significantly less than the $1.3 trillion goal specified in the first draft agreement. Some participants also indicated the drafts lack important details, such as which countries are expected to contribute how much. One significant stumbling block: EU representatives were reported to be calling for a significant increase in contributions from China, which had sought to garner admiration from developing countries by arguing for the $1.3 trillion goal.
The backtracking on the contribution amount has left representatives of the developing world outraged. “Our expectations were low, but this is a slap in the face,” the DW news agency quoted Mohamed Adow from Power Shift Africa as saying. “No developing country will fall for this. They have angered and offended the developing world.”
Many environmental activists at COP29 said they were exasperated by the circular nature of negotiations. “If COP29 were a movie, it’d be “Groundhog Day: The Climate Sequel,” one activist quipped.
A procedure, called Rule 16, has been used to effectively suspend discussion on many critical issues, seemingly kicking stalemated talks forward to next year’s COP gathering in Brazil. “Let’s face it, we need a laugh amid the madness,” the NGO activist participant said.
One environmental group took aim at COP29’s ostensible host, Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev, alleging that he set the wrong tone for the gathering with his opening remarks. “He did not invite world nations to adopt more ambitious emissions reduction commitments or take on greater climate finance obligations,” said environmental activist Javid Gara for the regional Climate Action Network (CAN), an association of NGOs that has been tracking developments at the conference. “A more positive and collaborative speech would have been more helpful than a defensive tone and blame shifting.”
Beyond COP29’s tangled negotiations, the gathering opened a window onto the Caucasus’ complex geopolitics and its environmental challenges.
Prior to the gathering’s start, CAN released a report breaking down the region’s climate-change vulnerabilities, as well as what countries are doing to reduce emissions. Climate change raises the risk of natural disasters and harmful precipitation trends in the region, the report said, including landslides in Georgia and Armenia, and water shortages and a higher likelihood of droughts in Azerbaijan.
The report also indicated that the three regional states are making progress on meeting greenhouse gas emissions targets. But determined action still needs to be taken to address numerous challenges. “Key insights reveal weak and inconsistent ambitions for mitigation and adaptation, along with a continued heavy reliance on fossil fuels and modest targets for energy efficiency and renewable energy,” a summary of the report states. “This is set against a backdrop of increasing natural disasters, water scarcity, and sectoral risks – particularly in agriculture and energy.”
Azerbaijani officials, while leveraging the event to advance trade deals, tolerated no criticism of its troubling human rights record. A report released during the conference by Washington-based watchdog Crude Accountability detailed how Western investments are propping up Azerbaijan’s authoritarian system.
Armenia, which is locked in prolonged peace negotiations with Azerbaijan to end more than 35 years of conflict, did not send a delegation to Baku. Georgian officials were in attendance, including Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze and Economics Minister Levan Davitashvili. The Georgian delegation played a relatively low-profile role at COP29, opting to use the conference as an opportunity to promote regional trade connectivity potentially beneficial to Georgia.
At a Middle Corridor roundtable discussion on November 20, Davitashvili acknowledged that bolstering trade through Georgia would increase greenhouse gas emissions and pollution, adding that the development of a “green” trade corridor would be a priority for regional states. “It is important to note that the transportation sector is one of the largest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions, highlighting the need for continued efforts aimed at greening the sector,” Davitashvili said.
Environmental activists voiced frustration that there was little interest among officials in hearing their input at COP29, or for staging public actions calling attention to particular issues. The frustration overflowed in the form of a silent protest. Activists at one point formed a human chain, not making any noise except humming and snapping fingers. “Think of it as a mime protest, climate-style,” a participant in the protest said.