ExxonMobil expects changes in oil and other liquids prices to reduce its third-quarter upstream earnings by US$1.3 billion compared with the previous quarter. Higher refining margins are expected to provide a larger boost to its Energy Products business.
The U.S. oil producer outlined the estimates in an October 16 regulatory filing ahead of its October 30 results release. Liquids include crude oil, condensate, and natural gas liquids. Changes in gas prices are expected to add US$300 million to upstream earnings.
ExxonMobil estimated a US$4.5 billion benefit from stronger Energy Products margins. Margin changes are also expected to lift Specialty Products earnings by US$500 million but reduce Chemical Products earnings by US$600 million.
The company projected no quarter-on-quarter earnings change from volume disruptions linked to Middle East events. That category covers production disruptions, shutdowns, and reduced crude deliveries affecting manufacturing operations.
“These are current estimates and are not a comprehensive list of all items affecting 3Q results,” ExxonMobil stated.
The estimates exclude operating performance and other factors. They do not represent a forecast of total third-quarter earnings. ExxonMobil reported second-quarter earnings of US$14.5 billion.
In Guyana, ExxonMobil operates the offshore Stabroek Block with a 45% interest. Hess Guyana Exploration holds 30%, while CNOOC Petroleum Guyana holds 25%. ExxonMobil Guyana
The company and its co-venturers announced on September 28 that they had produced one billion barrels from the block, less than seven years after production began in December 2019. Four floating production, storage and offloading vessels support the operations: Liza Destiny, Liza Unity, Prosperity, and ONE GUYANA.
ONE GUYANA began production at the Yellowtail development in August 2025, bringing the block’s installed production capacity to more than 900,000 b/d.
ExxonMobil’s fifth Stabroek development, Uaru, is targeting start-up in 2026 using the Errea Wittu FPSO. The vessel is designed to produce approximately 250,000 b/d, taking Guyana’s combined production capacity to about 1.15 million b/d once fully operational.