Shale titan Harold Hamm isn’t mincing words—if oil prices stay this low, drilling in some of America’s prized shale fields could grind to a halt. Speaking at CERAWeek in Houston, the Continental Resources founder warned that with oil hovering near $65 a barrel, many U.S. fields are already on shaky ground. “When you get below the cost of supply, you can’t ‘drill, baby, drill,’” Hamm told Bloomberg. “That shuts you down.”
It’s not exactly the raucous celebration oil executives had in mind when they gathered in Houston under the banner of Trump’s second-term Energy Dominance agenda.
Yes, industry leaders were quick to cheer the rollback of Biden-era climate policies. But President Trump’s aggressive trade stance is giving some in the industry a case of the jitters. His latest tariff war with Canada has placed downward pressure on crude oil prices–a scenario that President Trump has referred to as “phenomenal news.”
And it is for some. The oil industry’s mood, however, is just shy of celebratory.
It’s not just Hamm. ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance warned that inflationary pressures are creeping back into the system, while investors are skittish about how Trump’s on-again, off-again trade policies will impact energy markets.
BlackRock’s Larry Fink put it bluntly: “The only way we can navigate this—it’s not by cutting because cutting is going to destroy the economy. We must grow the economy.”
Meanwhile, the U.S. is still the world’s largest oil producer. But industry leaders are suggesting there are limits. Occidental Petroleum CEO Vicki Hollub, for one, has predicted that American crude production will likely peak between 2027 and 2030 before beginning a slow decline.
For now, the low oil prices are great for consumers. It’s not so great for the companies pulling it out of the ground. If prices stay low, even with regulatory relief, the shale boom may finally hit a wall.