Nestled on South America’s northern coast, Suriname is now at the threshold of profound change. On Wednesday, amid a fragile six-party coalition, Jennifer Geerlings-Simons was inaugurated as the country’s first female president.
From her first address, President Geerlings-Simons carried the weight of a nation’s expectations. “I stand here first and foremost as a Surinamese person, to begin, together with the government and the support of all other Surinamese, a path of transformation,” she said to a packed National Assembly.
The country is on the cusp of an offshore oil boom, with production expected to begin in 2028. Analysts and citizens alike are aware of the stakes. The specter of fiscal mismanagement looms large – a lesson taught by the 2022 debt crisis, when fiscal laxity under a prior NDP administration brought the nation to the brink.
In a recent country risk assessment, attention was drawn to the growing uncertainty surrounding how the new administration will maintain the hard-earned macroeconomic stability achieved under the Chan Santokhi government.
The report highlights that the NDP has not clarified its fiscal stance but notes the party’s past preference for expansionary spending and state-led economic models.
The day after her inauguration, in a televised interview on the Revenues for Everyone (RVI) program, Geerlings-Simons signaled a more cautious tone toward future oil revenues.
Reflecting on the constraints facing the new administration, she stated, “We can only spend what we have. We don’t have royalties yet. The oil winning hasn’t even started.” Her remarks suggest a more restrained fiscal approach may define the early phase of Suriname’s petroleum era.
However, analysts think coalition dynamics are likely to bring pressure for increased spending, with questions surrounding whether the new administration will sustain the discipline required to avoid renewed liquidity stress, particularly given that oil revenues will not begin until mid-2028.
The report notes, “This implies that if the new government eases its fiscal stance in 2025-26, in response to coalition members demanding increased budget allocations for their constituencies, Suriname would face the risk of renewed liquidity pressures and debt distress.”
The report observed that adherence to current fiscal policy frameworks would suggest continuity and reduce risk. However, if the new government shifts course prematurely, before oil starts flowing, the country may face renewed liquidity pressures and debt distress.